The development of Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) promise to change our commuting patterns in the not too distant future. Reduced traffic volumes and congestion will allow us to do away with excess travel lanes and mass parking facilities. Given that such vehicle infrastructure takes up anywhere from 30 - 50% of urban land, this could be a blessing for cities as the amount of re-developable land increases.

For designers and city planners, it offers a potential urban renaissance, where we can make good all the missed opportunities of ill-conceived transport decisions. It could allow us to provide higher densities, more affordable inner city housing options, develop networks of linear parks for sports, recreation and commuting, as well as exploring urban farming in cities previously built on prime agricultural soils. If managed right, this may offer a new model of city living.

Are We Over Estimating the Benefits?

Some professionals cite an 80 - 90% reduction in traffic as we transition to AVs. However, the number of autonomous vehicles required within a city is not dictated by overall daily usage, but by peak usage. This is the most important point in understanding potential impacts AVs will have on commuting patterns and city forms. Taking Dubai as an example, the diagram below shows why most projections are overconfident when estimating the potential traffic reductions associated with Autonomous Vehicles.

However, this private model of transportation will do nothing to alleviate peak hour traffic congestion or parking. A million commuters in private cars (automated or not) is still a million vehicles on our roads.

Evolution or Revolution?

Shared autonomous vehicles are unlikely to offer a like-for-like replacement with the private transportation models. Private autonomous vehicles will offer significantly higher levels of comfort, privacy, personal security, and flexibility with their use, a privilege that many people will happily pay for.

The argument of a direct substitution with private automobiles is unrealistic in our complex and fluid world. More likely is that shared AVs will offer a new layer of urban transit, the same way we have taxi, bus, bicycle and metro to choose from. It will give us more options and play a role in making our cities more efficient and democratic, especially to those who are mobility impaired due to age (young or old).

From One Problem to Another…

AVs could be just as polluting as petrol-based cars. Electric cars are only environmentally friendly if the recharge points are linked to carbon-free energy. Otherwise, we are literally driving coal or gas powered vehicles. Fortunately, opportunities for meaningful carbon reduction exists as renewable energy sources increases in both in use and efficiency. One issue that is rarely considered however is the decommissioning and recycling of batteries.

Chemical point-source pollution is likely to be the next major environmental concern as we develop fleets of millions of electric vehicles this century. Compared to the effects of carbon and global warming, it is the lesser of two evils, but government and industry need to think about how this will be managed before we trade one environmental disaster for another.

All the major car manufacturers and tech companies are getting involved, including Tesla, Uber, Ford, Toyota, and Google. In 2015, self-driving trucks started live testing on freeways in Nevada where they safely navigate public autoroutes, though still with a human driver to monitor all systems. City officials and governments are already preparing for the change in commuting patterns, with forward thinking city regions introducing pioneering AV policies. Dubai (UAE) recently launched a strategy that aims for 25% of all trips to be autonomous by 2030 and to ‘turn itself to the world largest R&D lab for driverless transportation’.

This 25% figure also includes the existing automated Dubai Metro system, which one could argue doesn't really count as an independently autonomous vehicle. Nor does it specify what percentage of those trips will be shared. Regardless of this detail, the Emirate has introduced an autonomous test vehicle as part of its commitment to a self-driving future. Such a vision goes beyond city efficiency, as Dubai will capitalize on economic revenues associated with research and technological development, positioning itself one of the leading knowledge-based cities in the world.

Conclusion

For autonomous transportation to deliver a meaningful reduction in vehicle numbers in our cities, we need to rethink the models of car ‘ownership’. Cities require a vision where shared-use models (rather than private models) of autonomous transportation are promoted.

Policy development must not naively view autonomous vehicles as a like-for like swap with the private automobile. Such a goal requires governments, city planners, the auto-industry and 3rd party operators come together with a common approach and vision. It would be the missed opportunity of the century if we don't get this right.

This article was originally published on Urban Design Journal, Issue 146, Spring 2018.
Image references: Image 1 source: Charles Montgomery, 2013, Happy City; Image 2 source: Volvo.